Bearish Spinning Top Explained & Backtested (2024)

The bearish spinning top is a one-bar Japanese candlestick pattern that traditional technical analysts believe represents indecision. But these traders are wrong according to multiple-decade backtests.

You can turn this indecision into clarity by using history as your guide.

Interested?

Please keep reading to learn what this pattern truly means and how to trade it profitably.

What Is a Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern?

Bearish Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern Illustration © Analyzing Alpha
Bearish Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern Illustration

The bearish spinning top is a one-bar candlestick that frequently occurs in all markets.

The pattern gets its name from the kid’s spinning top toy.

Bearish Spinning Top on Mirror

The pattern is traditionally considered an indecision candlestick, but the historical data shows that this pattern means a period of volatility is coming.

But before we cover the backtest results and how to trade this volatility profitably, let’s learn how to identify this spinning top pattern on our candlestick charts.

How to Identify the Bearish Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern

Bearish Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern on the Alphabet (GOOG) March 22nd, 2021 daily chart
Bearish Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern on the Alphabet (GOOG) March 22nd, 2021 daily chart

The following are the requirements for a valid bearish spinning top pattern:

  • The candle must be bearish with a short real body and upper and lower shadows longer than the body.

These one-bar patterns are trivial to identify.

We see the bearish spinning top candlestick on the Google (GOOG) March 22nd, 2021, daily chart. I’ve hidden the moving averages to show that this pattern is valid in all trends. 

We see a single candlestick with a slight bearish body and wicks larger than its body, fulfilling the spinning top candle requirements.

Now that we know how to identify this bearish top pattern let’s learn how to trade them.

How to Trade the Bearish Separating Line Pattern

According to our backtests, this pattern portends volatility. Traders should use a bullish mean reversion strategy in the crypto and stock markets and a bearish mean reversion strategy in the forex markets. 

But before we learn to capitalize on the historical data’s findings, let’s understand the traditional trading strategy.

Bearish Spinning Top Bearish Candlestick Continuation Trade Setup

Bearish Spinning Top Bearish Candlestick Continuation Trade Setup on the TransDigm (TDG) October 8th, 2021 daily chart.
Bearish Spinning Top Bearish Candlestick Continuation Trade Setup on the TransDigm (TDG) October 8th, 2021 daily chart.

The bearish spinning top is considered indecision, with most technical analysis literature expecting the candle to break bear.

We see a single red candle with a short body with wicks longer than its body on the TransDigm (TDG) October 8th, 2021 daily chart creating a valid pattern.

Most traders go short at a break of bearish spinning top candlestick low setting a stop loss just above the high.

Traders that took this trade fattened their portfolio, but history tells us this is a losing proposition as this trading strategy has a negative edge.

Bearish Spinning Top Bullish Mean Reversion Trade Setup

Bearish Spinning Top Bullish Mean Reversion Trade Setup on the Danaher (DHR) October 11th, 2021 daily chart.
Bearish Spinning Top Bullish Mean Reversion Trade Setup on the Danaher (DHR) October 11th, 2021 daily chart.

Data-driven traders in the stock and crypto markets understand that we can capitalize on this pattern’s volatility.

Traders look to go long when the price crosses below and then back above the pattern low, setting a stop loss of one ATR.

Let’s make this lucid with an example.

We see the spinning top candlestick pattern on the Danaher daily chart above. The price opens higher than the pattern low of $297.55 and crosses below. Now we wait up to three days for the price to move above the $297.55 low, which happens the next day. Price opens higher and moves more down, but not lower than our one ATR stop loss. The next day we see a short-term bullish trend turn this trade into a profitable one.

Now that we know the best trading strategy according to history for the crypto and stock markets, how do we capitalize on this pattern in the forex market?

Bearish Spinning Top Bearish Mean Reversion Trade Setup

Bearish Spinning Top Bearish Mean Reversion Trade Setup on the ASML Holding (ASML) November 23rd, 2021 daily chart.
Bearish Spinning Top Bearish Mean Reversion Trade Setup on the ASML Holding (ASML) November 23rd, 2021 daily chart.

The bearish mean reversion trade strategy is a mirror image of the bullish mean reversion strategy.

We wait for the price to move above the pattern high and then enter short when the price comes back below that price with a stop loss of one ATR.

We’ll use the above ASML Holding daily chart as an example.

We see the bearish spinning top occurring on November 23rd, 2021, with a high of $819.36. We then give the price up to a certain number of days to signal, called confirmation. In this case, we’ll give it up to five days to confirm. We see that price does move above the high on the fourth day. If we had used our backtest rules below and confirmed the pattern within three days, we would not have taken this trade.

With the price moving above the high and quickly reversing on the fourth day, we would have entered short near the beginning of the bearish short-term trend leading to significant profits.

But speaking of profits, how profitable is this pattern historically?

Does the Bearish Spinning Top Work? (Backtest Results)

Using the following rules, I backtested the bearish spinning top candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe in the crypto, forex, and stock markets.

  • A close above the 50-day SMA constitutes an uptrend.
  • I tested risk-reward ranges from 1 to 5. 
  • The optimal risk-reward ratio is selected using profit per bar.
  • Entry and exits are discussed in the how-to trade section above.
  • Confirmation must occur within three days of the pattern signal.

Similar Candlestick Patterns

Many candlestick patterns look similar to the bearish spinning top candle.

Bullish Spinning Top vs. Bearish Spinning Top

Bullish Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern Illustration © Analyzing Alpha
Bullish Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern Illustration

The bullish spinning top candlestick pattern is the mirror opposite of the bearish spinning top. They are both single candles typically thought of by most as indecision candlesticks. Neither requires a trend, and both have short bodies with wicks longer than their body.

The only difference between the bullish spinning top and the bearish spinning top is that the bullish spinning top’s close is greater than its open, and the bearish brother’s close is lower than the open.

Bearish Doji vs. Bearish Spinning Top

Common Doji Candlestick Pattern Illustration © Analyzing Alpha
Common Doji Candlestick Pattern Illustration

The bearish doji and bearish spinning top are incredibly similar. Neither requires a trend, and both supposedly represent indecision candlesticks. The only difference between the bearish doji and bearish spinning top is that the bearish doji’s open and close are very close, whereas the bearish spinning top requires a real body.

Bearish Short Line vs. Bearish Spinning Top

Bearish Short Line Candlestick Pattern Illustration © Analyzing Alpha
Bearish Short Line Candlestick Pattern Illustration

The bearish short line candlestick pattern and the bearish spinning top pattern are related. They are single candles that do not require a trend. The only difference between the bearish long line candlestick and the bearish short line candlestick is the length of the short line’s wicks must be tiny, whereas the spinning top’s wicks must be longer than the real body.

The Bottom Line

Like most one-bar candlesticks, the bearish spinning top occurs frequently and is often misunderstood. While the pattern is supposed to represent indecision, and I guess a case for that can be made, it also portends volatility. And when you know what is likely to happen next in the market, you have an edge.

Data-driven traders can capitalize on this volatility using bullish a bearish mean reversion strategies capturing the price reversals.  If this excites you, check out the article where I rank 80+ powerful candlestick patterns.

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